The White Knight Fund – FY25 Annual Insolvency Market Report

As part of our ongoing initiative to bring clarity to Australia’s distressed market landscape, The White Knight Fund has released its FY25 Annual Insolvency Report, a full-year analysis of ASIC insolvency data across states, industries, and appointment types.

This report not only unpacks the year in review, but also validates the strength of our predictive model, which landed squarely within its confidence range for Q4 forecasts.

Below is a summary of the key findings and what’s coming next.

📊 Prediction Accuracy – Q4 FY25
At the beginning of Q4, we forecast 5,753 insolvency appointments, with a 95% confidence interval of 4,800 to 6,700. The actual figure? 4,999.
This sits comfortably within our expected range, reinforcing the model’s utility in anticipating national distress patterns ahead of time.

📍 State-Level Movements
NSW remains the national leader with 7,147 appointments, but its growth has begun to plateau. By contrast, VIC (up 51%) and SA (up 52%) surged year-on-year, a sign of broader geographic spread in distress.

🏗️ Sector Under Pressure: Construction
Construction accounted for 25% of all appointments nationally, with over 70% concentrated in NSW and VIC. While growth in this sector has slowed (from +72% in FY23 to +24% in FY25), volumes remain historically high, with around 1,000 new construction insolvencies added each year since FY22.

⛏️ Mining: WA Leads, But Eastern States Rise
WA recorded 112 mining insolvencies, 94% of which were in metal ore or exploration. However, QLD and WA both saw declines, while NSW and VIC gained share in coal and quarrying appointments, suggesting a shift in sub-sector stress.

🏢 Market Share Among Appointees
Appointment activity continues to concentrate: just five firms handled over 27% of all insolvency events nationally. Leaders included Worrells, Mackay Goodwin, SV Partners, and Hall Chadwick, dominating activity across SME and mid-market cases.

📈 Forward Look – FY26 Outlook
Our revised model now forecasts 5,101 appointments across Q1 FY26, with a significant spike expected in October and November. We expect this to be driven by a 12–15 month lag in interest rate stress (particularly personal and mortgage lending), alongside continued weakness in:

🔹Construction (1,486 appointments predicted)
🔹Hospitality (938)
🔹Retail, Admin, and Professional Services (~1,000 combined).

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