The White Knight Fund – Q3 FY25 Insolvency Market Update

As part of a new initiative, The White Knight Fund has launched detailed, data-driven research into Australia’s insolvency landscape.

This quarter, we’ve released a comprehensive state-by-state analysis of ASIC insolvency activity for Q3 FY25. The full report (attached) explores key metrics – including state, appointment type, company, appointee, and industry – to provide meaningful insight for those navigating distressed markets. Below is a summary of the key findings and outlook.

📊 Quarter Snapshot – Restructuring Appointments
A total of 4,429 insolvency appointments were recorded, affecting 4,131 unique organisations. The market remains diverse, with 164 distinct appointee firms active.

📍 Top States by Volume
NSW leads with 1,707 appointments, followed by VIC (1,291) and QLD (751). While WA reported fewer events (~300), it continues to record the highest per capita incidence of insolvency, particularly in mining-heavy economies.

🗓️ Monthly Appointment Trend
Appointments increased steadily: 1,060 in January, 1,614 in February, and 1,755 in March. This consistent upward trend reflects mounting financial pressure across sectors, and may be a signal of what’s to come in Q4.

🏢 Top Appointee Firms
Appointment volume was again dominated by national leaders: Worrells (360), Mackay Goodwin (285), and SV Partners (278). These firms continue to lead in SME and mid-market restructuring across multiple industries.

🏗️ Industries Under Pressure
Construction topped all sectors with 1,123 appointments, followed by Accommodation & Food Services (916) and Administrative Services (511). Retail and professional services also saw rising distress, driven by tighter margins and consumer demand shifts.

⛏️ Mining Insolvencies
WA remains the epicentre of mining-related insolvency, with 19 appointments. Most activity was driven by a handful of firms: KordaMentha, WA Insolvency Solutions, McGrathNicol, KPMG, and FTI Consulting. These appointments spanned undercapitalised juniors, stalled exploration plays, and projects under external administration.

📈 Predictive Modelling – Q4 Outlook
Our predictive model forecasts 5,753 insolvency appointments for Q4 FY25. Confidence ranges place outcomes between 5,100–6,400 (80%) and 4,800–6,700 (95%). By sector, we expect the below vs current quarter:
– Hospitality to rise 20%+ (615–1,050 range)
– Construction to add up to 500 more appointments (~22% lift)
– Retail to increase 25%+ (245–475 range)

We look forward to seeing how these predictions compare to actuals in our next update, Noah Francis no pressure!

🧠 Open Invitation for Feedback
We want this initiative to create value. If there are insights, metrics, or breakdowns that would support your work, we welcome your suggestions.

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